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2 hours ago **Benford’s Law** and the Detection of **Election** Fraud Joseph Deckert, Mikhail Myagkov, and Peter C. Ordeshook University of Oregon 97403 and California Institute of Technology 91124 e-mail: [email protected] (corresponding author) The proliferation of **elections** in even those states that are arguably anything but democratic has given rise to

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8 hours ago **Benford**'s **Law and** the Detection of **Election** Fraud. Published online by Cambridge University Press: 04 January 2017. Joseph Deckert , Mikhail Myagkov and. Peter C. Ordeshook. Show author details. Joseph Deckert. Affiliation: University of Oregon 97403 and California Institute of Technology 91124.

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6 hours ago But back to **elections**. Data scientists have previously analysed vote tallies from **elections** in Iran, Ukraine and elsewhere – examining the first, second and final digits of vote tallies.However, the efficacy of using **Benford’s law** to identify electoral fraud is contentious, with one 2011 study concluding that finding meaningful patterns is like “seeing cats, dogs, and …

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5 hours ago **Benford’s Law** is used for accounting fraud detection; has been proposed for use in identifying **election** fraud; and has even been used to look for errors in national COVID-19 statistics. I was interested to see whether we could use **Benford’s Law** to detect some known, non-genuine bidding patterns on our platform.

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3 hours ago Experts on **Benford’s Law** have repeatedly and heatedly and a form in which voters could report **election** fraud. Regardless, evidence …

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6 hours ago **Benford’s Law** and **election** outcomes Posted on July 28, 2006 12:19 AM by Andrew Eduardo linked to this interesting paper by Walter Mebane on using **Benford’s Law** (the distribution of digits that arises from numbers that are sampled uniformly on a logarithmic scale) to investigate **election** fraud.

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3 hours ago A second tab has the same formatting but with random values which normally should not follow **Benford’s Law**. Press F9 to refresh the values. Get the **Benford’s Law** example. The **Benford’s Law** example worksheet is available **free** to all Office Watch and Office for Mere Mortals subscribers (also **free**).

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Just Now **Benford’s Law:** The unbelievable first-digit **law**. If you take the measure of anything, such as the height of a mountain, the length of a river, or the **price** of a company’s share, then the probability that this number begins with a one is about 30 percent. The probability of this number beginning with a nine, on the other hand, is only five

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8 hours ago The states are sorted by number of counties since **Benford’s law** breaks down with fewer records. The last couple of rows of states have zig-zag lines, probably due to this. There are four interesting states that do not have **low** county counts: Virginia (VA) looks a bit off [Clinton won this state by 5%] Kentucky (KY), Iowa (IA), and Mississippi

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5 hours ago While I regularly use Excel, MySQL, and a number of **low**- and high-level programming languages (including C++, PHP, and MATLAB), much of my work involves the use of the statistical programming language R. For dynamic, interactive and responsive web visualizations I use JavaScript, particularly D3.js and jQuery.

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Just Now Three items: **Benford’s Law**, Q, and the SCOTUS. It looks like there are a lot of attacks on the **Benford’s Law** data indicating the likelihood of fraud in the close swing-state **elections**. Now to be clear, it’s not PROOF of fraud, but it’s a strong indicator.

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8 hours ago Now, **Benford**'s **Law** can be utilised by anyone and observed across any financial data-set. Apply this to **prices**, financial data, or health statistics on TradingView! Future releases of this indicator will be fully equipped with time-specific windows to apply **Benford**'s **Law** and identify **price** manipulation.

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7 hours ago Thus, for processes thought to match **Benford**'s **Law**, Table 1 gives the predicted frequencies for both the first and second digits (referred to as the 1BL and 2BL models): In the realm of **election** forensics, it is these predictions that we see widely applied on a variety of Web sites when the author wishes to argue the some **election** was **free** or

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6 hours ago Unconvincing (to me) Use of **Benford’s Law** to Demonstrate **Election** Fraud in Iran. **Benford’s law** is an amusing mathematical pattern in which the first digits of randomly sampled numbers tend to

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2 hours ago **Benford’s Law**. Established empirically, the **Benford’s law**, also called the Newcomb–**Benford law**, the **law** of anomalous numbers, or the first-digit **law**, claims that many, but not all, data sets with a natural origin, including the results from mathematical operations, might produce relative frequencies for the first digit where the occurrence of the smaller numbers is higher than that of

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Just Now The ensemble average of 100,000 2,488-day simulations will certainly follow **Benford’s law**; this doesn’t tell us whether we should expect a *single* 2,488 run to nicely follow **Benford’s law**. Again, it’s like saying that because as N -> infinity coin flips are 50% heads, we should consider 6-heads in 10-flips as evidence of an unfair coin.

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Just Now In **election** forensics, **Benford**'s **Law** has been extensively used as a tool for detecting **election** fraud (eg, Menabe, 2007;Mebane, Alvarez, Hall and Hyde, 2008;Pericchi and …

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9 hours ago

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7 hours ago satisfy **Benford’s Law** (Hill 1995). **Benford’s Law** speci es that the ten possible second digits should not occur with equal frequency. A fundamental question is why we should expect **Benford’s Law** to apply to vote count data. Even though some have proposed to use the second-digit **Benford’s Law** distribution to test for fraudulent votes (e.g

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Just Now A test commonly used in forensic accounting called the Second-Digit **Benford’s Law** (2BL) just might make it possible to spot a numerical irregularity just by looking at it. The story behind the

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7 hours ago **Benford**'s **Law** shows a consistent numerical pattern in all things including voting - .. Can this be used to show fraud in the coming **elections**didn't the Pres

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9 hours ago Sunday Tunmibi. Wole Olatokun. This study examined the application of **Benford**'s **Law** to analyse the 2015 and 2019 presidential **election** data in …

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3 hours ago **Benford**'s **Law** shows up all over the place, and most people have no clue.Source: Probability Laws Get You **Free** Drinks!https://**youtu.be**/78BdGh0vvi4Scam School

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7 hours ago **Benford’s Law**: A Cloak-and-Dagger tool for Data Scientists. 02/11/2020. **Benford’s law**, often known as Newcomb-**Benford law**, is an observation about the frequency distribution of leading digits of unconstrained numeric data in the real world. The intuition behind the **law** dates to the 1880s when an American Scientist, Simon Newcomb started to

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2 hours ago Digital analysis using **Benford’s Law** was also used as evidence of voter fraud in the 2009 Iranian **election**. In fact, **Benford’s Law** is legally admissible as evidence in the US in criminal cases at the federal, state and local levels. This fact alone substantiates the potential usefulness of using **Benford’s Law**.

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5 hours ago

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3 hours ago **Benford**'s **law**, also called the Newcomb–**Benford law**, the **law** of anomalous numbers, or the first-digit **law**, is an observation about the frequency distribution

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Just Now Fraud examiners use **Benford’s Law** tests on natural numbers, like payment amounts. The theory is that if a fraudster submits fake invoices for payment, he won’t submit invoices for $100 or $200, he will want to go big and submit invoices for $900 or $800. If you do that enough times, it upsets the natural order of the way numbers should

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4 hours ago **Benford’s Law** is one of the most underrated and widely used techniques that are commonly used in various applications. United States IRS neither confirms nor denies their use of **Benford’s law** to detect any number of manipulations in income tax filing. Across the Atlantic, the EU is very open and proudly claims its use of **Benford’s law**.

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9 hours ago 104 votes, 35 comments. After sharing the initial results I got running the first-digit **Benford’s Law** test on GameStop’s historical closing **prices** …

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4 hours ago As a rough/somewhat-intuitive explanation of why **Benford**'s **Law** makes sense, consider it with respect to amounts of money. The amount of time(/effort/work) needed to get from \$1000 to \$2000 (100% increase) is a lot greater than the amount of time needed to get from \$8000 to \$9000 (12.5% increase)--increasing money is usually done in proportion to the money one has.

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3 hours ago There’s a certain logic to **Benford’s Law**. A number that begins with 1 needs to increase by 100% to become a 2. A number that begins with 5 needs to increase by 20% to become a 6. A number that begins with 9 needs to increase by 11% to become a 0. That is, an increasing number spends more time with 1 as the leading digit than 2, more time

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9 hours ago A book I use a lot is one written in 2012 by a supreme authority on **Benford’s Law**, Mark Nigrini, who put **Benford’s Law** on the map in the 1990s as a screening tool for fraud detection. The book is called **Benford**'s **law** applications for forensic accounting, auditing, and fraud detection .

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6 hours ago **Benford’s law**, also called the first-digit **law**, refers to the frequency distribution of digits in many (but not all) real-life sources of data.In this distribution, the number 1 occurs as the first digit about 30% of the time, while larger numbers occur in that position less frequently: 9 as the first digit less than 5% of the time.

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5 hours ago 4.Approximation of mathematical models: Tests for goodness-of-fit to **Benford** are also useful as a diagnostic tool for assessing the appropriateness of mathematical models. If current and past data follow **Benford’s Law**, it is reasonable to expect that future data will also obey **Benford’s Law**. For example, 1990, 2000, and 2010 census statistics of populations of …

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8 hours ago The November 3, 2020, Presidential **election** data from California sets off alarm bells. **Election** data generated by the natural voting process will closely match **Benford’s Law** predictions. (**Benford’s Law**, or the rule of leading digits, is used as an indicator of fraud in numerical data.)

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6 hours ago **Benford**'s **law** states that the leading digits of many data sets are not uniformly distributed from one through nine, but rather exhibit a profound bias. This bias is evident in everything from electricity bills and street addresses to stock **prices**, population numbers, mortality rates, and the lengths of rivers.

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8 hours ago **Benford**'s **Law** gives the expected patterns of the digits in the numbers in tabulated data such as town and city populations or Madoff's fictitious portfolio returns. Those digits, in unaltered data, will not occur in equal proportions; there is a large bias towards the lower digits, so much so that nearly one-half of all numbers are expected to

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8 hours ago **Benford**'s **Law** states that, in naturally occurring systems, the frequency of numbers' first digits is not evenly distributed. Numbers beginning with a 1 occur roughly 30% of the time, and are six times more common than numbers beginning with a 9. We show that **Benford**'s **Law** applies to social and behavioral features of users in online social networks.

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Just Now A state Department of Justice survey conducted late last year found that about 63% of the 434 Wisconsin **law** enforcement agencies that answered questions about body cameras use the devices to some extent. Madison’s police chiefs, including current Chief Shon Barnes, and its police union have long supported the adoption of body-worn cameras.

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Just Now

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1 hours ago (2) Estimated in accordance with Rule 457(c) solely for purposes of calculating the registration fee. In accordance with Rule 457(c) under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, the maximum **price** per share and maximum aggregate offering **price** are based on the average of the $109.97 (high) and $100.45 (**low**) sale **price** of the registrant’s Class A common stock as reported on …

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1 hours ago 738-4-80261-523-7. Downloads: 46670. **Price**: **Free*** [ ***Free** Regsitration Required] Uploader: Yozil. Likewise, some continuous processes satisfy **Benford’s Law** exactly in the asymptotic limit as the process continues through time. Accordingly, the first digits in this distribution do not satisfy **Benford’s law** at all.

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3 hours ago **Benford**'s **law** is a simple empirical tested first digit distribution in data series. I do my Macroeconomics Thesis and I am going to propose to evaluate various filtering processes. I have found an IMF article where they use the first digit **law** to evaluate data quality and it applies in EU12 and other developed countries.

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2 hours ago 3 Answers3. Active Oldest Votes. 7. In order to ensure that all digits are represented in first_digit_counts, you can convert first.digit to a factor, explicitly setting the levels so they include all digits from 1 to 9: first_digit = c (1, 1, 3, 5, 5, 5, 7, 7, 7, 7, 9) first_digit_factor = factor (first_digit, levels=1:9) # Explicitly set the

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Benford’s law is more than just a surprising relationship; it can also be used to detect fraud. When people make up data, it is tempting to assume that, to avoid detection, the numbers should “look” random with every digit showing up equally often and no suspicious patterns, like five 1s in a row.

Also called the "Law of Anomalous Numbers" , "First Digit Law", or the "First Digit Phenomenon", Newcomb–Benford law states that in many naturally occurring data sets, the leading digit is more likely to be a low number, despite probabilistic reasoning that each leading digit between 1 and 9 should be uniformly distributed at 11.1%.

If the digits were distributed uniformly, they would each occur about 11.1% of the time. Benford's law also makes predictions about the distribution of second digits, third digits, digit combinations, and so on.

WHEN TO USE BENFORD'S LAW TO SPOT FRAUD. Briefly explained, Benford's Law maintains that the numeral 1 will be the leading digit in a genuine data set of numbers 30.1% of the time; the numeral 2 will be the leading digit 17.6% of the time; and each subsequent numeral, 3 through 9, will be the leading digit with decreasing frequency.